1. Wheat Futures Experience Notable Rise
In overnight trading, wheat futures saw a significant increase, driven by technical buying amid expectations of a decrease in Russian production.
Investors who had previously shorted the market, betting on lower prices, are likely to have repurchased their contracts to secure profits following a recent price drop.
According to consultancy SovEcon, Russian wheat production for the 2026-2027 season is projected at 83.8 million metric tons, a decline from the 89.5 million metric tons estimated for the 2025-2026 season.
Farmers in Russia have planted 38.5 million acres of winter wheat, reflecting a 1.3% decrease compared to the previous year.
Despite earlier forecasts predicting rain in the southern Plains of the U.S., where hard-red winter varieties are overwintering, dry conditions are anticipated in western Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles.
Red flag warnings have been issued across much of the region today, with winds expected to reach 25 to 35 mph, gusting up to 55 mph, as reported by the National Weather Service.
Relative humidity levels are projected to drop as low as 8%.
Wheat futures for March delivery increased by 6¢ to $5.48 1/2 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, while Kansas City futures rose by 8¢ to $5.58 1/2 a bushel.
Corn futures also saw a modest gain of 1 1/2¢, reaching $4.37 1/4 a bushel.
Soybean futures climbed by 8 1/2¢ to $11.57 1/4 a bushel, with soy meal up 10¢ to $310.90 per short ton and soy oil rising 1.17¢ to 58.93¢ per pound.
2. USDA Reports Weekly Decline in Grain Inspections
The USDA has reported that inspections for corn and wheat intended for overseas delivery decreased during the week ending February 12.
Last week's corn inspections totaled 1.49 million metric tons, down from 1.61 million tons the previous week and 1.62 million tons during the same week last year.
Wheat inspections were recorded at 375,402 metric tons, a drop from 580,619 tons the week before, although this figure remains higher than the 250,829 tons assessed at the same time last year.
Conversely, soybean inspections for export rose to 1.2 million metric tons, compared to 1.14 million the previous week and 727,529 tons a year earlier.
Since the marketing year commenced on September 1, the USDA has inspected 35.7 million metric tons of corn for offshore delivery, an increase from 24.7 million tons at the same point last year.
Meanwhile, soybean assessments since early September now total 24.3 million metric tons, down from 36 million tons in the same period last year.
Wheat inspections since the beginning of the grain's marketing year on June 1 have reached 17.7 million metric tons, compared to 14.9 million tons during the same timeframe last year.
3. Northern U.S. Braces for Blizzard Conditions
Blizzard conditions are forecasted for the northern U.S., while extremely dry weather is predicted for parts of Nebraska, Iowa, and Illinois, according to the National Weather Service.
Blizzard warnings have been issued for counties in north-central South Dakota, where 2 inches of snow and wind gusts up to 55 mph are anticipated.
The NWS warns that ground blizzards can create whiteout conditions, making travel very hazardous or even impossible.
Winter storm warnings are currently in effect along much of the Canadian border in North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.
Up to 6 inches of snow may fall in northern Minnesota today, with winds gusting to 40 mph, complicating travel conditions.
Parts of several states, including Iowa, are expected to experience extremely dry weather today, with sustained winds in central Iowa ranging from 25 to 35 mph and gusts up to 50 mph, leading to relative humidity levels dropping as low as 12%.
The NWS advises against outdoor burning, as any fires that start may spread rapidly.
