The USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for February is set to be unveiled on Tuesday, February 10. Traditionally, this report is among the least volatile of the year.
Farmers should pay attention to the U.S. corn, soybean, and wheat markets, as well as what insights Grain Market Insider will derive from the revised balance sheets.
In summary, the January WASDE indicated an increase in corn ending stocks from 2.029 billion bushels in December to 2.227 billion. Similarly, soybean ending stocks rose from 290 million bushels to 350 million, and wheat ending stocks increased from 901 million to 926 million.
Corn Market Insights
The January WASDE included the final production estimate for the 2025 crop. Since then, corn export demand has remained robust. As of January 29, total export inspections were reported at 40.1% of the USDA's forecast, significantly higher than the five-year average of 28% for this time of year. Export commitments as of January 15 are solid, with the current pace exceeding the five-year average by 5.3%.
Furthermore, the use of corn for ethanol production for the 2025/2026 crop year has shown strong momentum since early October. The current marketing year's pace is well ahead of the USDA's estimate of 5.6 billion bushels.
Grain Market Insider anticipates a decrease in ending stocks in the upcoming February WASDE report, driven by increased exports and a slight uptick in ethanol production.
Soybean Market Forecast
Similar to corn, the January WASDE provided the final production estimate for the 2025 soybean crop. However, the pace of soybean export shipments has been slower, with only 51.3% of the USDA's forecast shipped as of January 29, compared to a five-year average of 66.9%. Export commitments reached 71.5% of the current estimate by mid-January, against a five-year average of 80.9%.
On February 2, the USDA reported that 230 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in December, surpassing the previous month's 221 million bushels and the 218 million bushels crushed in December 2024. This sets a new record for December. The pace for the 2025/2026 marketing year appears to be slightly ahead of the required pace to meet the USDA's estimate of 2.555 billion bushels.
Grain Market Insider suggests that while lower exports and higher crush are possible, ending stocks are expected to remain relatively stable in the next report.
Wheat Market Considerations
The USDA's reported pace of exports for the 2025/2026 crop year remains strong. Export inspections are currently at 68.1% of the estimate, compared to a five-year average of 61.4%. As of January 15, export commitments have reached 82.8% of the current estimate, surpassing the five-year average of 76.6%.
Grain Market Insider expects to see an increase in export demand reflected in the February WASDE report, leading to lower ending stocks.
Historical Trends and Statistical Insights
Analysis of data from 2000 to 2021 reveals that market volatility on the February WASDE report day is generally below average for corn, soybeans, and wheat.
For corn, there's a 59% chance the February report will evoke a negative market response, tying for the second highest likelihood among all reports. In terms of volatility, this report ranks second lowest, with an average price change of 4¢.
The February report presents a 50% likelihood of either a positive or negative market reaction for soybeans and wheat. In terms of volatility, this report ranks lowest for wheat, with an average price change of 6¢.
